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The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!

Post time: 2025-04-17 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On April 17, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.49. On Wednesday, the dollar index fell again and fell to around $99 at one point, and finally closed down 0.89% at 99.26 as traders waited for whether the Trump administration would reach a new trade deal with trading partners. U.S. Treasury yields also fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.282%; and the two-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 3.784%. Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the escalation of trade tensions, spot gold continued to set a record rise, refreshing its all-time high to above $3,340, soaring more than $100 in the day, and finally closing up 3.49% at $3,342.19 per ounce. Spot silver closed up 1.41% at $32.74 per ounce. Affected by the new sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran's oil exports, the two oils rebounded. WTI crude oil first fell and then rose, and recovered all lost ground during the European session and turned to rise, eventually closing up 1.78% to $61.93/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.48% to $65.31/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.49. With better-than-expected retail sales data in March, it rose 1.4% month-on-month to $734.9 billion, exceeding expectations of 1.3%. The annual growth rate is 4.6%, showing the resilience of consumer activities. However, market attention remains focused on trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a new investigation into tariffs on key mineral imports — seen as escalating non-tariff measures and export controls on Chinarevenge. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index closes below the 99.50 level, it will move towards the nearest support level, which is in the 98.80–99.00 range.

The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1369. Markets remain cautious, and traders are waiting for whether the administration of President Donald Trump will reach a new trade deal with partners. The European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision will be the focus later on Thursday. Technically, if the EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1400 level, it will move towards the next resistance level in the range of 1.1450–1.1470.

The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3212. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation, measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell from 2.8% in February to 2.6% in March. This figure is below market expectations of 2.7%, which makes it difficult for the GBP/USD to gain further bullish momentum. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after the previous rise of 0.4%. Technically, the closest support level of GBP/USD is in the range of 1.3180–1.3200. A break below the 1.3180 level will push the GBP/USD to the next support level 1.3080–1.3100.

The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Thursday, gold trading around 3346.51. The dollar weakened as tensions between China and the United States increased, gold prices continued a record-breaking gain for the third time this week. These tensions have increased the appeal to safe-haven assets such as gold. The escalation of the trade war has turned market sentiment to pessimism, and US President Trump ordered an investigation into rare earth imports to impose tariffs to further escalate the dispute with China.

The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!(图4)

Technical: The upward trend of gold prices still exists, and buyers pay attention to the $3,350 level. Breaking through this level will expose the $3400 target, followed by key psychological levels such as $3450 and $3500. Conversely, if gold/USD falls below $3300, the first support will be the April 16 low of $3229, followed by the $3200 level.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Crude oilTrading around 62.07. International oil prices have surged sharply by more than $1 as U.S. energy secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. could cut off Iran's crude oil exports across the board to force Iran to concessions on its nuclear program. Although Trump imposed a 90-day "suspended" of high tariffs on dozens of other trading partners this week, the protracted trade confrontation between the United States and China may still lead to a decline in global trade volume and disruption of shipping paths, dragging down global economic growth and weakening crude oil demand.

The global trade situation continues to be tense, and Powell refuses to save the market!(图5)

Technical: As traders react to the EIA report, the report shows that crude oil inventories increased by +500,000 barrels compared to the previous week. If WTI oil prices close above the nearest resistance level of $62.50 to $63.00, it will move towards the next resistance level in the $67.00 to $67.50 range.

Forex market trading reminder on April 17, 2025

14:00 Swiss March trade account

20:15 European Central Bank announced interest rate resolution

20:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to April 12

20:30 The total number of new homes started in March in the United States

20:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in March

20:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States in March

20:30 US Philadelphia Fed system in April Manufacturing Index

20:45 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde held a press conference

22:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to April 11

23:45 Federal Reserve Director Barr delivered a speech

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