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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
In the complex ecosystem of the foreign exchange market, various types of news are the key factors driving currency exchange rate fluctuations. For foreign exchange trading on April 15, a series of positive and negative news intertwined, bringing many key points to investors.
Data from the General Administration of Customs show that my country's import and export of goods performed well, with the total import and export volume reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, of which exports increased by 6.9%. Strong trade data show the resilience and competitiveness of China's economy in the global trade environment. The widening of the trade surplus means an increase in demand for the RMB, as export companies need to convert foreign currencies into RMB at settlement, thus providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate. Moreover, China's trade exchanges with ASEAN continue to be close, and ASEAN is firmly ranked as China's largest trading partner, with import and export volume of 1.71 trillion yuan. The stable growth of regional trade further consolidates the RMB's position in trade settlement and enhances the market's confidence in the RMB.
The US and Japan Treasury Secretary have reached a consensus on close communication on foreign exchange issues. This move is of great significance in the context of the complexity of the global economy. On the one hand, the coordination between the United States and Japan in trade and foreign exchange policies will help reduce expectations of large fluctuations in the yen exchange rate. If the two countries coordinate and stabilize the exchange rate, the risks brought by instability in the exchange rate will be reduced to the import and export of enterprises of both countries. For example, stable yen exchange rate can enable Japanese export companies to better plan their overseas market business and avoid profit losses caused by large exchange rate fluctuations. On the other hand, as an important global economy, the U.S. and Japan policyCoordination has a positive effect on stabilizing global market sentiment, which is conducive to creating a more stable foreign exchange market environment and enhancing investor confidence.
On April 15, global stock markets showed a positive trend. The three major A-share indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.34%, and the market turnover volume exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, about 4,500 individual stocks rose, and the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 20 billion yuan. The three major U.S. stock indexes also rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.78%, the S&P 500 rising 0.79%, the Nasdaq rose 0.64%, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 3.2%. Major European stock indexes in the European market also closed higher across the board, with the German DAX30 index closing up 2.85%, the UK FTSE 100 index closing up 2.14%, and the European Stoke 50 index closing up 2.59%. The general rise in the stock market reflects the increase in market risk preferences. Investors are more inclined to hold risky assets, and funds flow out of safe-haven assets. This is conducive to the performance of risky currencies, such as the euro, pound, etc., and supports the exchange rates of related currency pairs.
Although the overall global situation is relatively stable, geopolitical tensions in some regions still exist. Such as the persistence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the unstable factors in the Middle East, and the potential friction between China and the United States and China and Japan in trade and other fields, they all pose potential risks to the foreign exchange market. These geopolitical events will lead to intermittent heat up market risk aversion sentiment, and investors tend to hold safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss francs, which puts selling pressure on risky currencies. Moreover, geopolitical tensions may affect international trade and investment flows, which in turn affect the supply and demand relationship of currencies in relevant countries and increase volatility in the foreign exchange market.
The market has many speculations about the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although inflationary pressures show signs of easing, there are opinions that the Fed may continue to lower interest rates to encourage economic growth and take a more dovish (double) stance. But the complexity of economic data still makes the policy direction unclear. If the Fed's policy adjustments are less than market expectations, the US dollar may be hit. Because the US dollar occupies an important position in the global foreign exchange market, changes in its interest rate and monetary policy will trigger adjustments in global capital flows. If the US dollar weakens, the exchange rate of currency pairs denominated in US dollars will be affected. For example, currency pairs such as US dollar/Japanese yen, US dollar/Canada dollar may show a downward trend.
International institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have different views on the prospects for global economic growth. Some emerging economies are facing problems such as economic structural adjustment and debt pressure, and economic growth is facing challenges, such as the slowdown in economic growth in India, Brazil and other countries. Developed economies also face difficulties to varying degrees, and the European economic recovery momentum is insufficient, creatingIndustry and service industry data performed poorly. Differences in global economic growth expectations have caused investors to diverge their confidence in different currencies, affecting the supply and demand relationship of currencies. For example, national currencies with low economic growth expectations may face depreciation pressure due to investors' concerns about their economic outlook, which is manifested in the foreign exchange market as the exchange rate of related currency pairs falls.
When investors conduct foreign exchange transactions on April 15, they need to comprehensively weigh these positive and negative news, pay close attention to the release of global economic data, policy trends of central banks in various countries, and changes in geopolitical situations, and make investment decisions prudently to cope with the complexity and change of the foreign exchange market.
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