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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Trump announced "significant progress" in tariff negotiations!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The US dollar index rose slightly on Thursday, with the yen falling after U.S. President Trump announced “significant progress” in trade negotiations with Japan. The euro fell slightly after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year.
The dollar roughly stabilized this week after concerns about the economic impact of tariffs and sharp declines in investors' turnover to overseas assets.
Capital Economics analyst Jonas Goltermann said of the impact of the U.S.-European spread on the market: "The gap between the real exchange rate and the level pointed to by the short-term spread further expands, which shows that the perception around the dollar's safe-haven status has not improved."
Eric Theoret, foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank, said: "Most of the G10 currencies have had good growth in recent times, and I think it is only a temporary consolidation period. Our medium-term view of the US dollar is still relatively short, and it is just a consolidation at the moment."
Investors closely monitor the negotiations between the Trump administration and various trading partners, looking for signals that may reveal the Trump administration's trade goals.
U.S. President Trump said that tariff negotiations with Japan have made "significant progress". Trump and Italian Prime Minister Meloni also expressed optimism that U.S.-European trade tensions are expected to be resolved. The two are about to hold talks at the White House.
Bank of Japan Board of Directors Junko Nakagawa said U.S. trade policy is the most significant risk facing Japan's economic outlookone. In a speech, she pointed out that the U.S. tariff hike could directly damage Japanese corporate activities and put pressure on exports, production, sales, capital expenditure and profitability.
Nakagawa also noted that wider spillover effects could occur, including weaker commercial and consumer confidence and volatility in commodity prices and financial markets.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in parliament that uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, especially tariffs, has "intensified sharply" in recent weeks. Ueda stressed that the central bank will evaluate trade-related developments at each policy meeting without any preconceptions.
Ueda reiterated that the Bank of Japan intends to raise interest rates if the economic and price conditions are consistent with the forecast, while stressing that “we must be wary of the fact that uncertainty surrounding trade policies are intensifying.
As widely expected, the ECB lowered deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, but a more significant shift came from the tone of its accompanying statement. The ECB completely removed the claim that its policy stance was “restrictive”, a phrase that had previously indicated a tendency to further monetary easing.
This change suggests that policymakers believe that easing brings interest rates closer to neutral regions. The central bank stresses that it will maintain a data-based, meeting-by-conference approach, and given the unusual uncertainty, “there will not be pre-committed to a specific interest rate path”.
The ECB notes that the deflation process is still “on the right track” and that overall and core inflation continues to decline in line with expectations. Importantly, service sector inflation – which was a key crux of the past – has also “significantly alleviated” in recent months.
However, the central bank also highlighted the growing economic outlook downside. Risk. The ECB acknowledged that rising global trade tensions have begun to hit corporate and household confidence. The resulting volatility of financial markets has tightened financing conditions and could further curb activity in the euro zone.
The number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. fell -9k to 215k, lower than expected 224k. The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell -2.5k to 221k.
The number of renewed unemployment claims rose 41k to 188 in the week ended April 5 5k. The four-week moving average of the number of people who requested unemployment benefits rose by 1k to 1867k.
In an interview with Fox Business Channel, New York Federal Reserve Governor John Williams said monetary policy was “in a favorable position.” “I don’t think there is a need to change the federal funds rate setting in the near term,” he added.
He expects U.S. growth to fall below 1% this year, while unemployment will rise to between 4.5% and 5% as the impact of President Trump’s hike of import taxes penetrates the economy.
Williams stressed thatThis slower expansion should not be mistaken for a recession. “It’s just a slower prospect, slower than what you’ve seen in the past few years,” he noted.
He stressed the importance of ensuring that the one-time cost increase brought by these tariffs does not embed in a broader inflation trend.
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