The dollar index rebounds slightly, White House claims to be actively considering trade deals

On April 16, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 99.90. On Tuesday, the US dollar index rebounded slightly and returned to above the 100 mark, finally closing up 0.46% to 100.16. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.339%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.864%. Spot gold fluctuated back and forth around the 3220 mark and finally closed up 0.6% to $3229.54 per ounce. Spot silver closed down 0.11% at $32.29 per ounce. The two oils fell slightly, and WTI crude oil fell again to around the $60 mark, and finally closed down 0.16% at $60.98/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.25% at $64.35/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 99.90. The dollar index rebounded to the 100 area after falling to a three-year low of around 99.00, with the gains mainly driven by technical adjustments and oversold conditions. The dollar index rebounded to the 100 area after falling to a three-year low of around 99.00, with the gains mainly driven by technical adjustments and oversold conditions. From a technical point of view, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close above resistance at 100.20–100.40. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move towards the next resistance level 101.70–101.90.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1315. U.S. dollar is trading close to three-year low against the euro, trade tensions remain. Traders are preparing for a speech by U.S. retail sales report and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes below the support level 1.1275–1.1290, it will move to the next support level 1.1185–1.1200.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3247. The pound rose on Tuesday and hit a six-month high against the US dollar (USD) as the financial market narrative remains related to the U.S. tariffs imposed. Meanwhile, the UK remains outside the scope of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which will put pressure on the economy and open the door to a slowdown on the technical side, and if the pound/dollar remains above resistance at 1.3180–1,3200, it will go to the next resistance at 1.3300–1.3320.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading, gold trading was around 3268.71. Spot gold suddenly surged in the short term, and the gold price broke through the $3,260/ounce mark, with an intraday increase of more than $30. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that gold prices hit record highs as the Trump administration advanced an investigation into potentially expanding the trade war, stimulating demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical: Gold has maintained a perfect upward channel since early January 2025. It has recently broken through the key resistance of $3,170.00 and quickly climbed to an all-time high of $3,245.51. Prices are currently operating above the mid-track of the upward channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. The daily RSI reading is 68.35, close to the overbought area but has not yet entered the extreme overbought range. The MACD indicator remains in a golden cross state, and the distance between the DEA line and the DIFF line has expanded, indicating that the medium and long-term bull momentum is still increasing. The CCI indicator of the daily chart is 129.81, reaching the overbought level. In the medium term, the lower rail of the ascending channel and the $3,170.00 position constitute an important support area, while the upper resistance is guided by the extension line of the upper rail of the channel.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 60.90. International oil prices fell sharply, with a single-day decline of nearly US$3 per barrel, basically giving up all the gains in the previous trading day. Investors reassess the actual impact of the US "tariff suspension" measures while turning their focus to the continued escalation of the US-China trade war. Previously on Wednesday, due to US President Donald TerrDonald Trump announced the suspension of punitive tariffs on dozens of trading partners, and the two major crude oil futures rose by more than $2 a barrel. But this shift only occurred less than 24 hours after the tariffs came into effect.

Technical: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend moving average system is arranged downward, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. After the oil price hits a low of 55.20, the frequent alternation of bulls and bears formed will accumulate momentum for shorts in the medium term and are expected to further decline to the 50 position in the later period. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil remains at the right shoulder position of the head and shoulder bottom reversal pattern. The oil price has not yet broken through the neckline position, so the reversal pattern has not yet been established. The short-term objective trend direction is the oscillation rhythm, and it is expected that the intraday crude oil trend is expected to break through the neckline to form a small upward rhythm.

Forex market trading reminder on April 16, 2025

14:00 UK March CPI monthly rate

14:00 UK March retail price index monthly rate

16:00 Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account

17:00 Eurozone March CPI annual rate final value

17:00 Eurozone March CPI monthly rate

20:00 WTO releases global trade outlook report

20:30 US March retail sales monthly rate

21:15 US March industrial output monthly rate

21:45 Bank of Canada announced interest rate resolution

22:00 US April NAHB Real Estate Market Index

22:00 US February commercial inventory monthly rate

22:30 US to April 11 EIA crude oil inventories

22:30 US to April 11 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories

22:30 US to April 11 EIA strategic oil reserve inventory

22:30 US to April 11 EIA strategic oil reserve inventory

22:30 Bank of Canada Governor McClum held a press conference

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